Satanic Pacts, Long Knives, Discomfort and Joy – Politics and UK Immigration

Buoyed up by last week’s by-election victory and forecasts of another in November, Nigel Farage has named his price for UKip’s support of a minority Tory Government: an in-out Euro Referendum before August 2015. If this all sounds “a bit previous”, it is worth noting that two weekend polls  put UKip at having 25% and 15% of nationwide electoral support. So what does all this mean to the existing party political landscape? Quite a lot. For the Tory leadership the pressure is really on to move to to a UKipian stance on Europe and immigration generally. The party has lost supporters- but there is time to win them back before the May election if direction is changed on these key areas. But a shift now would look like exactly what it is- giving in on a point of principle; just waiting, on the other hand, could be fatal for the current leadership if they lose in November. Oh, and I have to mention Boris Johnson in this context- his comments on the Andrew Marr Show will increase David Cameron’s discomfort (Tory manifesto pledge on cutting immigration was a great deception). For the Tories generally the fear is that the significant anti-Europe and anti immigration sector of their electorate will continue to migrate to UKip, damaging their prospects at the next general election in May 2015. They are stuck with a leader who has been reluctant to commit to a firm position on Europe and many in their leadership who see the social and economic dangers of withdrawal from the EU. They are faced with the choice of two ignominies: being seen to back down to UKip’s demands- many still see it as an upstart and caving in would be a humiliation; or sacrificing their leadership, which would have the same effect but could be painted as something different- a pre-existing opinion amongst the party, independent of UKip’s demands and successes. Labour too has lost some support to UKip, though not so much as the Tories. The impact here will depend on what happens to the bulk of the anti vote- will UKip split the right and damage Tory election prospects to Labour’s advantage? Or will an alliance or a deal arise between those others? Labour’s response will depend on the direction taken by the Torys and UKip. If the anti-vote was in any significant way to split the right, Labour could benefit from presenting the only real alternative. If the next election turns into an anti-immigration fashion parade… well who knows? For UKip of course, things couldn’t be going any better. They’ll drink to that.

This immigration blog post: Immigration Lawyer Jeremy Chipperfield, practising from the chambers of Michael Mansfield QC, Chancery Lane, also writes at Immigration Barrister website www.iBarristersChambers.com

uk immigration barrister13oct14
thanks Johns Hopkins

This immigration blog post: Immigration Lawyer Jeremy Chipperfield, practising from the chambers of Michael Mansfield QC, Chancery Lane, also writes at Immigration Barrister website www.iBarristersChambers.com

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